Tuesday, July 21, 2009

HOG --- Harley Davidson ... Overbought at These Levels





Harley Davidson --- 5 days Chart



Despite Harley Davidson's history and track record of profitability, my opinion is that HOG is overbought at these levels. The earnings last week were not as bad as expected which explains the short term run up on the stock, however the bottom line is that demand for Harley's has slowed down significantly with the economy taking a beating and they are still carrying quite a bit of bad debt. I would be a supporter of this stock for the long run, as I am confident that consumer demand will once again pick up as we work our way through this recession. The value of the brand is undeniable and in the long run they will return to profitability.

In the short run (over the next weeks and month), I would anticipate a pull back down to the range of $17.5 - $18.5 possibly even lower as the markets take a breather after the current run up.

This is a short recommendation for the next few weeks.

Good luck and always do your own Due Diligence before investing.

Face

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